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GOP Midterm Turnout Will Exceed Already High Expectations As Party’s Fortunes Grow

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OPINION: This article may contain commentary which reflects the author’s opinion.

A leading pollster with a history of accuracy has given Republicans an additional reason to believe that the November midterms will go well for the GOP.

In an interview on Sunday with Fox News host Dan Bongino, the Trafalgar Group’s Robert Cahaly discussed what he believes other polling firms are getting wrong by overstating Democratic chances, namely because they are under-reporting Republican support.

“We would just ask people, you know, how do you think your neighbors are voting? It’s a projection device, and it would allow people to explain that, yes, maybe I’m for Hillary, but my neighbors are all for Trump, and it let them say they were for Trump without being judged,” Cahaly explained.


“This year, our fear is that people are not going to be polled that are Trump supporters because all that Biden has said, and all the apparent attacks, and people coming after them and they’re just hesitant even to participate,” he continued. “I think everybody will underestimate them, including us. Republican turnout will exceed even what we predict.”


There are other indications that the GOP will outperform what many mainstream polling firms and media outlets have forecast.

North Carolina GOP Chairman Michael Whatley told Just the News late last week that he believes Republicans will do well because Democratic candidates are refusing to debate GOP challengers.

“I’m not surprised Democrats don’t want to debate,” Whatley said Thursday regarding refusals by Arizona gubernatorial candidate Katie Hobbs and Pennsylvania Senate candidate John Fetterman ducking debates.

“They cannot stand on their agenda. They cannot stand on the issues. You know, when you think about where the American people feel when we talk about economy, when we talk about inflation, talk about gas price talk about Southern border, Republicans have 20-30 margins on every one of the issues that American people feel about,” Whatley said.

“So, you know, Democrats are going to want to just put their TV commercials up, they’re going to want to use some soundbite. They do not want to get into details. And it’s not surprising that they’re gonna duck these things,” he added.

Whatley also noted that voters are smart and they know the differences in the country and the world from when Donald Trump was president to now, under Joe Biden.

“Under President Trump, we had inflation at 1.9 percent,” Whatley said. “We had gasoline prices at $2.39 a gallon, we had a secure southern border, and we had a strong standing in the world.

“Here we are, not even two years later, under Democratic control, and inflation is the highest it’s been in 40 years, gasoline and diesel prices are at record highs, the border is absolutely open, 4.5 million illegal immigrants have come across the border since the president took office, we had the disastrous Afghanistan pull out,” Whatley continued.

“We’re seeing right now Russia invade Ukraine, and we’re getting ready to see China invade Taiwan,” he noted further.

There is also anecdotal evidence that would seem to favor Republicans. For instance, Just the News reported separately that there has been a dramatic increase in New Yorkers who are switching their driver’s licenses to Florida:

In August, 5,838 New Yorkers switched their driver’s licenses to Florida, the highest recorded number for a single month in history, the report found.

From Jan. 1 to Sept. 20, 41,885 New Yorkers have turned in their licenses after officially leaving the state.

Finally, the Biden FBI’s raid on Trump’s Mar-a-Lago estate early last month created a new groundswell of support for the former president.

In the wake of the raid, a survey that more than 80 percent of Republican voters said the raid made them “more motivated” to vote in the 2022 election.

A Trafalgar Group and Convention of States Action survey found that 71.7 percent of Independent respondents said that the raid increased their drive to vote.

“Independent and Republican voters are united in their outrage about this unprecedented and tragic event in American history,” Meckler said in a statement about the poll results. “This Gestapo-style injustice has created a voting surge that is so significant, the polling doesn’t even begin to reflect what is coming from grassroots voters in November.”

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