The Democrats’ worst nightmare is coming into focus and it’s a real possibility.
Most people expect Democrats to lose control of the House to Republicans in 2022, but as the midterms grow closer many people think the Senate is also in play.
Now imagine if Trump is reelected in 2024.
It’s the type of thing that keeps Democrats awake at night.
Democrats’ worst Trump nightmare
There’s something much worse than losing the House, and possibly the Senate, that’s rattling top Democrats who are studying polling and election trends:
The big picture: It’s the possibility of a re-elected President Trump with a compliant, filibuster-proof Senate majority in January 2025.
Why it matters: It’s impossible to forecast elections. But you can look at the states with Senate elections in 2024 and see why some Democrats are sounding the alarm.
“Democrats are sleepwalking into a Senate disaster,” Yale’s Simon Bazelon wrote last week on Matt Yglesias’ Substack, Slow Boring
– “The 2024 map is much worse,” Bazelon added.
– A close presidential election, he wrote, could doom Democratic Sens. Jon Tester in Montana … Joe Manchin in West Virginia … Sherrod Brown in Ohio … Bob Casey in Pennsylvania … Tammy Baldwin in Wisconsin … Kyrsten Sinema in Arizona.
– Plus toss-ups could threaten Sens. Debbie Stabenow in Michigan and Jackie Rosen in Nevada.
– In all those states, hardcore liberalism is a tough sell.
Then factor in that most of the GOP senators who stood up to Trump and his brand of politics will be gone: Sens. Rob Portman of Ohio and Pat Toomey of Pennsylvania, who are retiring after this term, and former Sen. Jeff Flake of Arizona.
Can you even imagine the meltdown from Democrats and the media?
🚨 Hot in @Axios AM:
Top Dems’ growing fear: a re-elected Trump w a veto-proof Senate majority come Jan 2025
Look at states w ’24 Senate races — and see why Dems are sounding the alarm: “The 2024 map is much worse”
— Mike Allen (@mikeallen) April 19, 2022
This is all possible. Democrats should be worried.